Residential vs . Commercial MSW generation trends in Minnesota

Minnesota's municipal solid waste has grown much faster than its population since the state began measuring waste generation in 1991. It is not clear where the growth in solid waste is coming from, whether it is residential, commercial, or a combination. It is essential to learn where, and why the waste is growing in order to develop effective public policies for addressing this problem. This paper discusses observations made in Minnesota regarding the sources of waste generation. INTRODUCTION The 1990s were a time of rapid growth in waste generation in Minnesota. The municipal solid waste (MSW) stream alone grew from 3.8 million tons per year in 1992 to 5.2 million tons per year in 1999, a change of 37 percent. During the same period, population grew from 4.5 to 4.8 million, just 7 percent. If waste generation continues to grow at the rates observed during the 1990s, it could overwhelm our existing waste management infrastructure requiring costly measures. Similar growth rates have been observed in several other states that have time-series data, including North Carolina, Washington, California, and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The Minnesota Office of Environmental Assistance is charged with coordinating MSW planning efforts throughout Minnesota, and therefore seeks to understand how this growth may affect our future solid waste management systems, and to identify what can be done to limit future growth. The future growth of MSW can be estimated by projecting current trends into the future. Projections were undertaken and presented in the 2000 Solid Waste Policy Report. In brief, the conclusion was that if the waste growth trends continue, MSW generation will triple over the next 20 years. Based on the annual average growth trends, the state could generate as much as 13 million tons annually by 2020. What can be done to limit future growth? The answer can only be found if we know where the growth is coming from. Without this information we are handicapped because we cannot target our efforts at the root source of the growth. We can only watch the indicators rise and fall. This paper presents data from the OEA solid waste database, highlighting trends in MSW generation, and findings regarding the sources of waste generation in Minnesota through an examination of recycling data and data from several communities in Minnesota. This paper attempts to provide some insight regarding the trends observed in Minnesota, and prompt questions for further consideration and study.